Its time to rank the top 10 players for next year in the NBA sophomore class. This ranking while discussing their future abilities is simply an indicator of how I believe statistically and anecdotally they will play and affect games in the upcoming season.
#1 Brandon Roy - The reigning rookie of the year clearly was the most productive of the entire rookie class last season and has all the indicators of future success one could hope for. Averaging 17 ppg (his scoring went up every month of the season), 4 rpg, and 4 apg while playing 35.4 minutes a game Roy established himself as a legitimate threat on the court for his team. He shot 37% from 3 point range and 45.4% overall, but unfortunately his true shooting percentage of 54.8% was the 46th best among shooting guards, a major concern. Of course that is easily counterbalanced by the fact that he still posted a 18.08 PER which was good enough for 20th among shooting guards and best among last years rookie class. While 20th my not seem extremely high, it was better than 4th year point guard Kirk Hinrich who is beginning his 50 million dollar extension this year, and it is within a point of the other up and coming Baby Bulls Ben Gordon and Luol Deng both of whom just completed their third year in the league.With Roy amazing rookie year in the books it only stands to reason that he would improve on his own next year and post even better numbers; however, with the addition of a dominant big man in Greg Oden to his team it is even more likely he will improve by leaps and bounds as Oden commands the paint along with Lamarcus Aldridge (#2 in this list), and new addition Channing Fyre. While the team lost Zach Randolph who likely temporarily would be a more commanding offensive force than Oden, Randolph only averaged 2.2 assists despite his 30.1 usage rating per 40 minutes (highest among pf's) both taking away opportunities from Roy and not helping to produce hardly any easy baskets. Additionally Randolph only averaged .2 blocks per game and it is an absolute certainty that Oden will get at least 5 times that much in his rookie year. With blocks leading to fast breaks this will help to further enable Brandon Roy to continue to develop and prosper in the NBA.
Overall, Brandon Roy far outperformed all the other rookies of the '06 class last year and has all the ingredients necessary around him to continue to develop into the upper echelon of NBA shooting guards. A top 10 PER finish is well within his reach in addition to averages of 20/5/5.
#2 Lamarcus Aldridge - It is extremely rare for a player to be drafted #2 overall one year to become a second fiddle to another rookie in his 2nd year for the rest of his career, but that is the case with Lamarcus Aldridge. With the addition of Greg Oden to the Portland roster Lamarcus Aldridge will be forced to become a secondary big man, but in this instance, rare for such a high pick, this may be a good thing. In Aldridge's two years at the University of Texas he was never the go to scorer and gave no indication that he was on his way to becoming an unstoppable down low force; however, while playing second fiddle to inferior athletic talents such as PJ Tucker Aldridge still put up extremely strong numbers.In his first year in the NBA, Aldridge started only 22 games but ended the season with averages of 9 points, 5 rebounds, and 1.2 blocks per game. Before being injured late in the season Lamarcus showed signs of becoming a more assertive baskeball player as in the 5 games before his injury began to affect and eventual end his play last season he averaged 19.4 points per game along with 8.2 rebounds. Overall, he ranked extremely well as a rookie in terms of efficiency at 17.17 PER (better than Rasheed Wallace and Lamar Odom) and shot above 50% for the year, an excellent mark for a rookie playing significant minutes (22.1 per game).
While Aldridge did not establish himself in the race for rookie of the year or show many signs of true dominance, he showed he is a capable young power forward in the league. Still only 21 years old his skills should continue to develop to catch up with his athletic abilities and with the pressure off due to the presence of Oden Aldridge should be freed up to develop at his own pace. In the future the only foreseeable negative effect on his total production other than not being the dominant big man on the team is the presence of newly acquired big man Channing Frye. Frye too had a similar stretch of game to Aldridge and high rookie PER before tailing off last year and is likely to take minutes for Aldridge for at least the next two years. In terms of next years production though, Aldridge will likely outperform all the other rookies below him overall efficiency wise and number wise if he receives enough playing time. A similar PER to last year and averages of at 15/7 (very playing time dependent) seem in order as Aldridge continues to develop his overall game.
#3 Andrea Bargnani - Bargnani was advertised as a Dirk Nowitski-esque European player coming into the draft last year and lived up to that billing in both the positive and negative aspects. Like many European players Bargnani was an under performing rebounder for his size and position and likewise struggled on the defensive end in terms of man-to-man defense and shot blocking. While he managed to average 11.6 points in only 25.4 minutes per game, he managed only 3.9 rebounds, .8 blocks, and .8 assists in that same amount of time. His overall efficiency was below the league average at 12.85 which was 75th among power forwards (so efficiency wise he should not have been in the top 2 rotation of any teams power forwards). With all that information in mind it appears Bargnani played much of his rookie year as an inefficient gunner long on shooting and short on anything else.However, many other numbers lead to the belief that Bargnani will be an effective NBA player next year. He posted a true shooting percentage of 54.6%, had only 12.4% of his possessions lead to turnovers, and shot 37.6% from 3. All of these stats out did the players preceding him in the rankings. In addition, Bargnani's numbers were superior in every respect to those Dirk Nowitski posted in his rookie season. Nowitski cured his rebounding woes and his career progressed and it is logical to believe that a similar player such as Bargnani with his athletic ability can do so as well.
The Toronto Raptors are dedicated to allowing Bargnani to succeed as he is GM Bryan Colangelo's first and likely last number one overall pick with the team. With a solid guard line-up (T.J Ford, Jose Calderon, Anthony Park) around him, a big man in Chris Bosh always present in the middle to handle a large share of the down low banging, and an uptempo gameplan around him Bargnani has begin given the tools necessary to continue his development. With a PER likely to rise above 15 (the average line) this season Bargnani should see his numbers increase across the board as he grows more comfortable in the NBA and away from home. It is not unrealistic to believe that Bargnani could push his scoring average to almost 18 points per game in addition to pulling down around 7 rebounds as he continues to learn to fight inside the NBA paint.
#4 Tyrus Thomas - Tyrus Thomas spent his entire rookie season being the most polarizing figure in terms of his deserved playing time. His penchant for high flying dunks and blocks in addition to the Bull's lack of ability in their starting front court left fans clamoring for him to play a more prominent role on the team. Meanwhile. others, such as the team's coach, saw a player lacking any offensive refinement who did not yet have the basketball acumen to play high minutes in the NBA.Tyrus Thomas started off the season slowly, but in the end he was able to produce many high caliber games. In late March in consecutive games Tyrus Thomas had 13 points/10 rebounds against the hawks and 27/9 against the cavaliers. He followed these games up with an 8/8 and a 13/8 basketball game, but from that point on in the regular season he was only able to break double digits in any category once with 10 rebounds versus the Washington Wizards playing without Gilbert Arenas and Caron Butler as his minutes were continually cut by an unhappy Coach Skiles. Likewise his was almost non-existent in the Bulls sweep of the Heat, but managed to post 3 double digit scoring games (including 18 in game 2) versus Detroit in the Bulls 6 game losing series. For the season his PER was 14.80, better than Bargnani's, and he was able to post similar block, steal, and rebounds numbers in only half the playing time (he points per 40 were just slightly less than Bargnani's). His true shooting percentage was lower than any of the above players at 52%, but Thomas' underdeveloped offensive game does not yet get him to the line with any frequency.
Thomas will be on 21 year's old when the season begins in September and there is no reason to believe he will not continue to develop into a better player even if his offensive game does not flourish quickly. His rebounding and defensive alone justify his presence on the court at least twice as much as last year (11 minutes per game). John Hollinger favorably compared Thomas' first statistical season to that of Shawn Kemp's which is an excellent sign of Thomas' potential growth as a player as time progresses. While Thomas will likely not post the scoring numbers of other players below him on the list his effect on the game will be greater in the upcoming season because of his abilities in all other areas of the game. A PER around 15 to 16, rebounds in the 8-10 range, and 2 blocks per game are well within reach as long as the newly drafted Joakim Noah or re-signed PJ Brown prevent Thomas from receiving the playing time he deserves. As long as Tyrus can become a more secure ball handler though (19.1% turnover rate last season) I do not see anything other than a substantial increase in minutes coming Tyrus's way. As Ben Wallace continues his decline in the coming season Tyrus Thomas will be able to replace much of the statistical prowess that Ben will leave behind.
WHO WILL THE BOTTOM 6 BE!? Check in Tommorow.
Daniel Gibson
Paul Milsap
Sheldon Williams
Randy Foye
Rudy Gay
Renaldo Balkman
Rajon Rondo
Marcus Williams
Sergio Rodriguez
Thabo Sefolosha
Rodney Carney
Adam Morrison
